Polling expert Sir John Curtice indicates that Reform UK could be a significant contender in the local elections, with declining support for both Labour and the Conservatives. Around 15% of voters are currently backing Reform, which has led to predictions of substantial gains for them. Curtice emphasizes the unprecedented situation where fewer than half of voters plan to support the traditional two parties. Furthermore, predictions suggest that Reform could successfully secure hundreds of seats, creating challenges for the Conservative leadership as they navigate a changing political landscape.
"Fewer than half of the people who tell pollsters how they are going to vote say they are going to vote either Conservative or Labour. It has never been quite that low before."
"Reform, in a sense, have already won these local elections. One of the targets they set for themselves is to create local party organisations."
"We are in very uncertain territory... partly because Reform are intervening virtually everywhere. There is no baseline against which to measure them."
"They will make some gains from the Conservatives but there will be losses to Reform."
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