"Fresh post-Budget analysis published today by economic consultancy ChamberlainWalker suggests that forecasts underpinning the non-dom reforms are increasingly detached from reality. Drawing on the Office for Budget Responsibility's latest Budget report alongside earlier forecasts, the study concludes that the government is assuming almost £16bn in tax receipts over the next three years will flow from overseas assets being brought into the UK - an outcome the authors say is highly unlikely under current legislation."
"At the heart of the government's projections is the expectation that around £130bn of foreign assets will be repatriated to the UK via the Temporary Repatriation Facility (TRF), part of the reforms introduced following the abolition of non-dom status in 2024. The OBR estimates that this would generate nearly £16bn in tax receipts in the near term and contribute towards a projected £34bn in revenues by 2029-30."
"However, ChamberlainWalker's analysis argues that this optimism rests on three questionable assumptions. First, it says the Treasury is banking on large numbers of non-doms making use of the TRF, despite tax advisers actively discouraging clients from doing so in its current form. While the government expects £360bn in overseas assets to be eligible, the report suggests there is little incentive for individuals to transfer funds without stronger legal certainty."
A former government economist dismissed expected tax revenues from the abolition of non-dom status as "fantasy economics" and warned reliance on flawed assumptions risks future fiscal shortfalls. ChamberlainWalker uses OBR figures and earlier forecasts to show the government assumes almost £16bn in tax receipts over the next three years from overseas assets repatriated to the UK. The government projects about £130bn of foreign assets will be repatriated via the Temporary Repatriation Facility, generating nearly £16bn near term and contributing to £34bn by 2029-30. The analysis identifies three questionable assumptions that inflate projected receipts, including TRF uptake and underestimated departures.
#non-dom-status #temporary-repatriation-facility #tax-revenue-forecasts #office-for-budget-responsibility
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