#office-for-budget-responsibility

#office-for-budget-responsibility

There might be three weeks to go until Rachel Reeves presents her budget, but in the topsy-turvy wonderland of the budget process, the real drama happens in the next few days. The chancellor will have to submit her major decisions to her official forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), this week. This means no more discussion, debate and seat-switching between No 10 and No 11 once the spreadsheet is sent it is rarely changed.

Our independent forecaster is likely to downgrade the forecast for productivity in the UK based not on anything this government has done, but on our past productivity numbers, which, to be honest, since the financial crisis and Brexit have been very poor, and that just shows how essential growth is. So I'm not going to do anything in the budget that reduces our opportunities to grow the economy. That's very important.

The budget is still a month away and speculation about its contents is already in full swing. Details of what Rachel Reeves has planned will dribble out over the coming weeks, but two things are certain: taxes are going up, and they are going up by a significant amount. Obviously, the chancellor would prefer not to be in this position.