"Tuesday's labour market figures show a predictable deterioration. The headline is the 5.1% unemployment rate, which, apart from a brief blip for Covid, is the highest in a decade. It is worryingly high for new entrants to the jobs market - 13.4% for 18-24-year-olds. If you are effectively locked out of a job in your first years after graduation or leaving school, it is very difficult to build a sustainable career in the years ahead. No wonder mental health problems are surging for young people."
"Most of the other indicators are also going in the wrong direction, with the total of those in employment falling. Small changes in these figures are not very reliable, and come from three separate sources, but it's difficult to deny that it's a gloomy picture for the private sector, where employment is falling overall and particularly amongst the woefully neglected self-employed. Public sector employment, however, continues to expand, albeit slowly."
"Caveats apply, of course, but the public sector also appears to be doing better in pay, with earnings up by 7.6% on an annual basis, as against just 3.9% in the private sector. Vacancies are down again. None of this is surprising, given the increase in employers' national insurance contributions, the rise in minimum wages (especially sharp for younger workers) and the looming regulatory changes in the Employment Rights Bill."
Labour market conditions have deteriorated, with unemployment at 5.1%, the highest in a decade apart from Covid. Youth unemployment is 13.4% for 18-24-year-olds, undermining early-career prospects and worsening youth mental health. Overall employment has fallen, especially among the self-employed, while public sector employment continues to expand slowly. Public sector earnings rose 7.6% year-on-year versus 3.9% in the private sector. Vacancies have declined. Contributing factors include higher employers' national insurance contributions, rising minimum wages (sharper for younger workers) and regulatory changes in the Employment Rights Bill. Current government policy choices are identified as driving the deterioration and increasing recession risk.
Read at London Business News | Londonlovesbusiness.com
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