Keir Starmer's next steps: what hurdles must the prime minister now negotiate?

"The release of documents on Peter Mandelson's appointment as US ambassador are expected to include embarrassing personal messages between ministers, advisers and the disgraced peer. This is especially so now the decision is out of the control of No 10. In a vain attempt to take the sting out of the fury about Mandelson's relationship with the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, last Wednesday Starmer agreed to release these documents."

"But his proposal that No 10 would control the process threatened a backbench rebellion. Instead, in a sign of Starmer's weakness, the cross-party intelligence and security committee will decide what gets released. It is unclear how long the committee will take to decide what gets released, but the first documents could emerge in coming days. Starmer believes the release will vindicate his position that Mandelson repeatedly lied to No 10 about his ties to Epstein."

"Labour comfortably won this Manchester seat at the 2024 general election with more than 50% of the vote and a majority of more than 13,000. But there is a real prospect Labour could finish third behind the Greens and Reform UK in a vote that's due on 26 February. A heavy Labour loss would heap more pressure on the PM. Last month Starmer personally intervened to block Andy Burnham, the popular Manchester mayor, from standing in the seat, to prevent a potential leadership challenge."

Keir Starmer faces multiple political threats after Morgan McSweeney's resignation temporarily eased pressure. Documents relating to Peter Mandelson's US ambassadorship are expected to include personal messages linking ministers, advisers and Mandelson to Jeffrey Epstein. The decision over release is no longer controlled by No 10; the cross-party Intelligence and Security Committee will decide what emerges, potentially within days. Starmer hopes the documents will vindicate his claim that Mandelson lied to No 10, but questions remain about why Starmer accepted Mandelson's denials despite public evidence of close ties to Epstein. A Manchester by-election on 26 February risks a heavy Labour defeat, intensified by Starmer blocking Andy Burnham from standing.

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