"I fear for Nigel Farage. This should be his big year, the make-or-break 2026. Last year his Reform party finally began to top the polls and he was feted by Washington as the UK's Trump and next prime minister. So how now would he turn a sheaf of poll results into a disciplined election-winning machine? Or has he for the past year merely been doing what most third parties do at this stage of a parliament, which is feast on the misfortune of their opponents?"
"It held that position through the summer, with a high of 29% according to YouGov, and 33% according to More in Common. But pollsters now suggest that Farage's party may have peaked with YouGov's December polling showing a drop in its vote share to 26%, its lowest since April. Some of this has been credited to increasing support for the Tory leader Kemi Badenoch and to the joint Lib Dem/Green vote surging to nearly 30%."
Reform surged into a steady lead in spring polling, peaking at roughly 29–33%, then slid to 26% in December. The slide coincided with rising support for Tory leader Kemi Badenoch and a combined Lib Dem/Green surge. Reform's gains may reflect third-party opportunism during opponents' weakness rather than organisational readiness to govern. The party remains a classic one-man show centered on Nigel Farage rather than a disciplined party machine. British electoral culture traditionally elects parties and programmes with cabinet-based governance, making presidential-style, star-driven appeals harder to translate into durable electoral success.
Read at www.theguardian.com
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