The upcoming local elections are poised to serve as a significant assessment of Kemi Badenoch's leadership as the new Conservative leader. Unlike in previous years, the elections are complicated by the dominance of Conservative councils in Conservative areas, making results harder to interpret. Previous contests were influenced by Boris Johnson’s stronger popularity in 2021, following the vaccine rollout, but recent polls suggest a possible decline in support for the Tories compared to Nigel Farage's Reform party. Changes in electoral systems and the mixed council landscape add to the complexity of this year's results.
In many other years, the first set of local elections with a new government and prime minister in place would be scrutinised keenly as a judgment on the PM's performance so far.
This year the runes will be harder to read because so many of the councils that are up are Conservative councils in Conservative areas.
A poll last month suggested that the Tories would have fewer councillors elected on 1 May than Reform, indicating shifting political sentiments.
This year's election in the two seats will be a first-past-the-post election; in 2021 supplementary vote was used.
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