"But what exactly are the current polls telling us? And how likely is it that such a huge shift will actually materialise? Reform's poll lead is persistent, but recent. Its support first matched and overtook Kemi Badenoch's Conservatives at the start of the year. Soon after, it was vying with Labour. It was in April, as voters began to focus on local elections, that Farage's party began to enjoy a solid poll lead."
"The Guardian's latest poll tracker which takes an average of the polls over the last 10 days has Reform polling at 31%. This is 10 points ahead of Labour, on 21%. Poll averages Overall vote shares only tell part of the story. Several pollsters now use polling models that combine a bumper sample of polling data with demographic information to estimate how each seat might play out."
Nigel Farage has spent his political career disrupting the political order. Reform UK's popularity has risen to the point where some in Westminster think Farage could trigger a major political upheaval. Polling shows Reform at 31% in the Guardian's 10-day average, ten points ahead of Labour on 21%. MRP modelling estimates vary, with YouGov projecting 311 seats, including 231 gains from Labour, which could put Farage in Downing Street without an overall majority. Other MRPs have suggested outright majorities. Poll-derived models carry significant uncertainty, amplified by the complexities of a multiparty electoral landscape.
Read at www.theguardian.com
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