The Toronto Raptors' journey through the 2024-25 season illustrates the complexities and challenges of tanking in the NBA. With a current record of 18-40, they hold the 5th best draft odds, benefiting from a 42.1% chance of landing a top-4 pick. However, the unpredictability of the draft lottery diminishes the guarantee of improvement, even for the worst team, the Washington Wizards, who have marginally better odds. Furthermore, the players’ desire to win complicates the tanking strategy, making the situation nuanced as the season nears its end.
Raptors currently have the 5th best draft odds with a 42.1% chance for a top-4 pick, illustrating the complex nature of NBA tanking.
Even with the worst record, the Wizards have a 52.1% chance for a top-4 pick, emphasizing the unpredictability of the NBA draft lottery.
Fans want teams to lose to improve draft odds, but as the Raptors show, losing guarantees little in the lottery outcomes.
Despite a poor record, players are motivated to win, complicating the strategy for teams considering tanking.
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