Auston Matthews and John Tavares remain elite centers, and the addition of Nicolas Roy adds meaningful depth down the middle. Matthews recorded a 33-goal season on 12.5 percent shooting, a statistical low relative to his career norms and described as an outlier. That scoring dip raises expectations for a rebound to his usual high output. The team must replace the departed Mitch Marner's production by committee, with center depth serving as the starting point. If Matthews returns to his Rocket Richard-caliber scoring, the Maple Leafs will become one of the most dangerous teams in the 2025-26 season.
"But it's critical Matthews turns last year into a statistical outlier. A 33-goal season on 12.5 per cent shooting would be a career year for 95 per cent of forwards in the NHL, but for Matthews it was his worst on both fronts. His Ovechkin-like scoring reliability sets the expectation bar incredibly high, and from a team perspective, that bar needs to be even higher in 2025-26 - replacing the exited Mitch Marner's production will have to come by committee, starting here."
When Matthews is on, he's one of the best players on the planet and even his middling season last year, would be the best ever for the vast majority of players in the league. If he is able to brush off that experience and return to his Rocket Richard-winning self, then the Leafs are automatically one of the most dangerous teams next season.
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