Matt Belloni predicts Stephen Colbert will win his first Emmy for Late Show, citing his status as a comedy martyr. However, the Emmys are historically resistant to change, as demonstrated by past trends favoring shows like The Daily Show. The cancellations and circumstances surrounding Colbert's show raise questions about voter habits. The Emmy voters show a strong attachment to historical winners, and significant events, such as economic forecasts and pressures related to the Trump administration, play a role in the industry's future.
The Emmys' tendency toward stubbornness is perhaps the institution's defining attribute. The last ten years alone have featured Julia Louis-Dreyfus's six-year winning streak for Veep, as well as Game of Thrones winning Outstanding Drama for its final four seasons, followed by Succession winning for its final three.
Colbert is a shoo-in to beat rivals The Daily Show and Jimmy Kimmel Live! in the three-horse race to win his first series Emmy for Late Show.
The Emmy voter is a creature of habit, and I think it would take something major to get enough of them to drift away from their historical preference for The Daily Show.
The grim economic forecast for late-night TV doesn't do much to disprove the former notion, but the timing of the cancellation - mere weeks after Paramount Global had settled a defamation lawsuit by the Trump administration for $16 million - is quite suspect.
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