The Real Winner of SpaceX's IPO: Mark Zuckerberg

Meta raised 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $125 to $145 billion after Q1 revenue grew 33% year over year. While debate continues over whether Meta is overspending on AI, SpaceX disclosed a cloud services agreement structure in an S-1 filing. In May 2026, SpaceX signed agreements with Anthropic granting access to compute capacity across COLOSSUS and COLOSSUS II. Anthropic agreed to pay $1.25 billion per month through May 2029, with capacity ramping in May and June 2026 at reduced fees. Either party can terminate with 90 days’ notice. SpaceX stated the structure monetizes unused compute capacity while allowing reallocation for internal initiatives if needed.

"In its recently disclosed S-1, SpaceX revealed that in May 2026 it signed Cloud Services Agreements with Anthropic granting access to compute capacity across its COLOSSUS and COLOSSUS II supercomputers. The terms are striking. Anthropic has agreed to pay $1.25 billion per month through May 2029, with capacity ramping in May and June 2026 at a reduced fee, and either party may terminate on 90 days' notice."

"SpaceX explicitly states that this structure monetizes unused compute capacity while still permitting reallocation of the capacity for its own internal initiatives if needed. The agreement design allows capacity to be sold when idle, while preserving flexibility to redirect resources toward internal projects without being locked into a single external customer."

"Amazon Web Services was built originally to handle Amazon's own retail spikes. In 2006, Amazon opened that excess capacity to outside developers. Two decades later, Andy Jassy is running AWS at a $150 billion annualized run rate, growing 28% year over year, with an AI-specific run rate over $15 billion just three years into the AI cycle."

"Jassy said on the most recent call: "We have been through this cycle with the first big AWS growth wave, and we like the results. We expect to feel similarly about this next wave with much larger potential downstream revenue and free cash flow." Hyperscale history rhymes here. Hyperscale infrastructure built for internal use tends to become a generational business when its owner decides to rent the excess."

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