No Clear Direction

"After crossing $93k last night, BTC is ranging tightly, but staying above the $91k level. With Polymarket at 93% probability and FedWatch at 89%, a 25bps rate cut seems all but certain at this point. It's a light week in macro, so price action won't see much effect from this sector. Shorts are building on centralized exchanges, with Binance and OKX having negative annualized funding rates on perpetual futures."

"The tight range we are currently seeing could persist without any catalysts coming forward this week. ETF flows are muted as well, with about $59m in inflows yesterday. The end of the year sees volume start to fall off of a cliff, as people focus on the holidays and take a break from the market, especially in times of low volatility. If BTC starts approaching $100k again, all bets are off here, however."

"The rest of the market is trading in quite rangebound fashion as well since Monday's losses were erased. Solana is trading in the $140 range, and has low annualized funding rates across perpetual future exchanges at this time. SOL has not had much attention lately, but the penultimate conference, Breakpoint, is next week. Breakpoint is taking place in Abu Dhabi from 12/11 to 12/13."

BTC crossed $93k and is ranging tightly while staying above $91k. Polymarket shows 93% and FedWatch shows 89% probability for a 25bps rate cut. Macro calendar is light this week, limiting macro-driven price catalysts. Shorts are accumulating on centralized exchanges; Binance and OKX show negative annualized funding on perpetuals while DEXs like Hyperliquid and Lighter show BTC funding above 10%. ETF flows remain muted with about $59m of inflows yesterday and year-end volume is expected to decline as holiday activity reduces trading. Solana trades near $140 with low funding rates and faces Breakpoint in Abu Dhabi (12/11–12/13).

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