Micron approaches $1tn as UBS sees a path to $1.8tn over 12 months

A UBS analyst raised a Micron Technology price target to $1,625 from $535, citing long-term HBM supply agreements that could compress memory’s traditional boom-bust cycle. The thesis is not that AI demand will keep pushing prices indefinitely, but that agreements between memory makers and major customers, especially hyperscalers and Nvidia, cover enough of the market to create more stable earnings. UBS estimates up to 30% of global DDR volumes are already tied to pricing agreements set slightly below current spot levels, trading some near-term upside for visibility. If the pattern holds, Micron could resemble an AI-infrastructure annuity, with UBS expecting EPS above $100 annually through at least 2029. HBM supply dynamics remain uneven, with SK Hynix holding about 70% of HBM4 supply for Nvidia’s Vera Rubin platform and Samsung taking most of the remainder.

"UBS's thesis is not that AI demand will lift memory prices indefinitely, which is the standard cyclical-upside argument. It is that long-term supply agreements between memory makers and their largest customers, particularly the hyperscalers and Nvidia, now cover enough of the market to compress memory's traditional boom-bust cycle into something closer to a smooth utility-style earnings profile."

"UBS estimates that up to 30% of global DDR memory volumes are already tied to pricing agreements set slightly below current spot levels, exchanging some near-term upside for years of visibility. If that pattern holds, Micron starts to look less like a cyclical commodity producer and more like an AI-infrastructure annuity."

"UBS expects Micron earnings per share to exceed $100 every year through at least 2029. At current valuations that math is enough to sustain a market cap closer to $1.8tn than to the roughly $1tn the company is trading near today; the trillion-dollar level was itself unimaginable as recently as 12 months ago."

"The HBM picture is more textured than the headline suggests. SK Hynix has been the runaway winner of the cycle so far, holding around 70% of HBM4 supply for Nvidia's flagship Vera Rubin platform with Samsung taking most of the rest. Micron was initially locke"

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