"The MySQL database server is a foundational component of the open-source world. While its impact is undeniable, looking at the raw statistics of its core source code repository reveals a dynamic and sometimes surprising development history (...) The yearly view of commits, emphasizes the volatility but clearly validates the long-term declining trend. (...) Based purely on the historical volume of commits, the project's activity is projected to continue its decline."
"The overall trend since 2011 shows a sustained decline in the number of commits and a shrinking pool of unique contributors. The trendline is a clear warning that, without intervention, the general development pace is expected to slow further. However, the increasing, focused effort on "Heatwave" suggests that development resources are being strategically allocated to high-priority, commercial initiatives within the broader MySQL ecosystem."
"Meanwhile, the annual number of code updates has decreased roughly fourfold over the past 14 years, indicating less overall work on the project. The report shows that the amount of new core programming code being added each year has been declining over time, possibly because the software has matured or development has shifted to proprietary versions. Some developers are asking for a similar analysis of the PostgreSQL repository to better compare the two trends."
Repository statistics for the MySQL server show a long-term decline in development activity and contributor numbers. Active contributors fell from a peak of 198 in 2006 to about 75 in 2025. Annual code updates decreased roughly fourfold over 14 years, and commit counts have trended downward since 2011. Projections based on historical commit volumes indicate further decline without intervention. Development effort appears increasingly concentrated on commercial features such as Heatwave. The amount of new core code added yearly has declined, possibly due to software maturity or migration of work into proprietary versions. Oracle layoffs have reduced community-edition development capacity.
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