"Expected goals tells us how well teams do the basics of football by creating lots of good chances up front and limiting their opponents to few, difficult ones at the back. With the figures based on how Premier League teams have performed in the past, history shows that the higher a team's xG difference - the more they dominate games - the more chance they have of success."
"So what do the stats tell us? If sides keep performing at around the level they have so far, then... Despite what Pep Guardiola says, the title race is a two-horse contest, with Arsenal the best team in the league and likely winners With three spots probably taken already, the remaining Champions League place (or two) will be a fight between Liverpool, Manchester United, Newcastle and Chelsea"
With more than half the Premier League season complete, expected goals (xG) provide a clear measure of team performance by quantifying chance creation and defensive limitation. Historical data show that higher xG difference correlates strongly with greater chances of success, with the highest xG difference winning the title in three of the past four seasons. Arsenal currently lead in xG difference and therefore appear likeliest to win the title, while Manchester City are not as dominant as in previous seasons. The remaining Champions League places should feature a contest between Liverpool, Manchester United, Newcastle and Chelsea. Nottingham Forest and Leeds are performing better overall than West Ham, suggesting the relegation battle is largely settled. Aston Villa and Sunderland have outperformed their underlying numbers and may regress, while Wolves' underlying play exceeds their points, avoiding an historically poor points total.
Read at www.bbc.com
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