"We've already celebrated the not-quite-but-it's-the-best-we-can-do halfway point of the Premier League season by looking backward. Last week, I picked out my award winners for the first slightly-more-than-half of the year: the best goals, best players, best young players, and best coaches. But I wasn't trying to predict anything with these selections; the sustainability of your performance didn't matter. What's already happened has, well, already happened."
"What, though, might happen over the final 17 games of the Premier League season? Who's going to win the league? Who's getting relegated? And who's going to be playing in Europe next season? Not only am I giving you my answers to those questions, but I'm also answering a bunch of questions no one is asking. Like, who will finish in 11th place? And will Brighton or Fulham finish higher in the table?"
"Mikel Arteta's side have the most points, and they're the most likely team to win the most points over the final 17 matches. Most prediction models give them around an 80% chance of winning their first league title since 2003. It's the same story here. The clear second-best team in the league has the second-most points, and so second place is the overwhelmingly likely outcome."
Predictions are provided for the Premier League standings after the remaining 17 matches, including title winner, relegation spots and European qualification. The table is presented both by current points and by non-penally expected-goal differential to forecast future performance. Mikel Arteta's Arsenal currently have the most points and are projected to win the most points over the closing fixtures, with many models assigning roughly an 80% chance of securing their first league title since 2003. The clear second-best team mirrors its points standing, making second place the most likely outcome. Questions about midtable placings and comparisons, such as Brighton versus Fulham, are also addressed.
Read at ESPN.com
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