"The third week of playoff rankings have been released and the wildest thing is North Texas is sitting -115 both ways to make or miss the playoff ... while not even being ranked. Tulane is the only AAC team the committee is willing to acknowledge, and Navy isn't in the Top 25 either. Yet the books hung a number that basically says: this is the team the market expects to rise."
"The committee is reacting to resumes. North Texas has big wins, but not quality wins. Washington State, Army and South Alabama don't move the needle. Then UNT has one loss, a 63-36 defensive collapse to South Florida. That's the kind of disaster game that the committee essentially punishes. Tulane looks cleaner and Navy looks competitive, but again ... only Tulane is ranked."
"UNT winning the conference comes down to being structurally complete and not just explosive. They lead the conference in scoring at 45 points per game, sit near 490 yards per game and carry one of the best passing efficiency profiles in all of college. QB Drew Mestemaker has 3,000 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, with four receivers exceeding 340 yards -- the most balanced passing tree in the AAC. Navy and Tulane don't have the counterpunch for that. The gap is both stylistic and mathematical."
North Texas is unranked but priced by sportsbooks at -115 both ways to make the playoff, reflecting market belief in its December ceiling. The committee emphasizes resumes and penalizes a 63-36 collapse to South Florida, which limits North Texas’s current standing compared with Tulane and Navy. Sportsbooks focus on end-of-season outcomes and underlying metrics; North Texas leads the conference in scoring (45 PPG), averages near 490 yards, and posts elite passing efficiency. QB Drew Mestemaker has 3,000 yards and 24 touchdowns with a highly balanced receiving corps, creating a stylistic and mathematical gap over Tulane and Navy.
Read at ESPN.com
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