Is the new manager bounce real or a myth?

"The 'new manager bounce' is a phenomenon where a team has an upturn in form and performance after appointing a new manager. When a new coach takes over after a sustained period of poor results, it is often noticed that results and player performance improves. With Manchester United, Chelsea and Celtic sacking their managers in recent days, the clubs will be hoping that a switch of personnel can inspire results."

"In the Premier League, the data suggests that clubs do generally see an immediate improvement in results after changing coaches. Of the last 30 permanent appointments, 18 bettered their team's points tally in their first five league games in charge compared to the previous five under the old boss. Nine teams declined in that five-game spell and three teams returned the exact same number of points as their previous coach."

""It is a lottery whether the change is successful," he told The Times in 2025. "It might turn on missing players returning from injury who then inspire the team and that can coincide with a new manager coming in whose voice and tactics can have a significant effect." Image source, Getty Images Of those last 30 hires, Graham Potter has the best record - gaining 11 points from his first five games after replacing Thomas Tuchel at Chelsea."

New managerial appointments frequently produce a short-term uplift in results and player performance, particularly after sustained poor form. Recent sackings at Manchester United, Chelsea and Celtic reflect clubs seeking immediate improvement through personnel change. Among the last 30 permanent Premier League appointments, 18 managers improved their team's points total in the first five league games, nine saw declines and three matched the previous tally. Strong initial results do not guarantee long-term success, as several managers with good starts later recorded disappointing overall records. Returning injured players and tactical adjustments can coincide with managerial change and influence outcomes.

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