"Premier League teams finishing on 36 or more points in each of the last nine seasons were guaranteed safety from relegation. In the 20-team Premier League era, starting from the 1995-96 season, the average number of points needed for survival, or the number of points the 18th place team finished plus one, is 35.53 - rounded up to 36 points."
"In the 30 Premier League seasons that have had 38 games a season for each club, 36 points would have ensured survival 60% of the time. This season is expected to be a familiar tale. After 12 rounds of games, 18th is currently on track to finish on 35 points, meaning 36 points would ensure survival for a 10th consecutive campaign. That rate of survival increases to 80% for 38 points, 90% for 40 points and 100% for 43 or more points."
"West Ham hold the record for the team relegated with the most points in the 20-team era. In the 2002-03 season, the Hammers picked up 42 points but were still relegated. The safety thresholds for last two seasons have been significantly lower due to newly-promoted teams struggling in the Premier League. The last two seasons have seen 26 and 27 points be enough to seal safety respectively. Only once prior to the 2023-24 season has a total below 30 points been enough to seal survival."
The historical safety threshold in the 20-team Premier League era averages 35.53 points, rounded to 36. Teams finishing on 36 or more points in each of the last nine seasons avoided relegation. Across 30 seasons with 38-game schedules, 36 points ensured survival 60% of the time; 38 points 80%, 40 points 90%, and 43+ points 100%. After 12 rounds, 18th place projects to finish on 35 points, making 36 likely to ensure a tenth consecutive safe season. The last two seasons had unusually low safety totals—26 and 27 points—due to newly promoted teams struggling. West Ham were relegated with a record 42 points.
Read at www.bbc.com
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