"I say this at the same time every year, but we always seem to forget it: Most January transfers don't matter. There has rarely been a signing across the Big Five leagues that genuinely made a difference for an eventual title-winning team. More specifically, via analysis from the consultancy Twenty First Group: "net transfer spend in January has just a 5% positive correlation with change in points per game, and that €20 million in net spending has delivered on average just a 0.03 increase in points per game in the big five leagues since 2015"."
"Of course, this doesn't mean that January transfers can't make a difference -- especially with the current bunched-up state of the Premier League. Over half of a season, those 0.03 points per game add up to just over half a point, but that could be the difference between winning the title vs. coming in second, or nabbing a Champions League place vs. spending your Thursdays traveling to Helsinki for Europa League matches."
Net January transfer spending shows only a weak positive relationship with changes in points per game, with Twenty First Group finding a 5% correlation and €20 million delivering about a 0.03 ppg increase on average since 2015. Over half a season that equates to roughly half a point, which can still alter tight outcomes such as the title or Champions League qualification. The current Premier League table is tightly bunched, with small gaps between many positions and Opta projections indicating a 98.2% chance of earning a bonus Champions League place. Eight teams' most urgent January transfer needs are identified and ranked, with Newcastle United listed at number eight.
Read at ESPN.com
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