"Transfer season has ended for a few months, plus the first -- and most interruptive -- of international breaks is coming to a close. We can all actually now give our full attention to reasons why most of us enjoy soccer: the actual games. After a summer in which Premier League teams spent €3.6 billion in transfer fees, the rosters are locked into a place for a while and this weekend, the league season really begins in earnest."
"That three-match prelude produced minimal separation -- 16 of 20 Premier League teams have between two and six points and even the team that won its first three matches, defending champion Liverpool, did so with flaws and maximum drama. We settled nothing in the first 8% of the league season, and then everyone signed approximately 17 new players on the day of the transfer deadline."
"It is, therefore, a pretty good time for a reset. If we combine the current projections from Opta's supercomputer with the current betting odds at ESPN BET, we can get a pretty good lay of the land and create decent estimated odds for both winning the title and finishing in the top five."
Transfer season has ended and the first, most interruptive international break is coming to a close. Premier League teams spent €3.6 billion over the summer, leaving most rosters fixed as the full league season begins. A three-match prelude produced minimal separation: 16 of 20 teams have between two and six points, and Liverpool's 3-0 start featured notable flaws and drama. Little was settled in the first 8% of the season, and many clubs signed numerous players on transfer deadline day. Combining Opta projections with ESPN BET odds provides estimated probabilities for title and top-five finishes. Four teams currently have at least an estimated 8% chance of winning: Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester City.
Read at ESPN.com
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