"We have officially reached the "nerd zone" of the 2025-26 European soccer season. It is said (by the nerds, of course) that it takes about 10 matches for expected goal (xG) figures to start telling you a semi-accurate, predictive story about a given team. We should probably think of that as more of a range of about eight to 15 games, but regardless, the European season has officially entered that range."
"It's mid-November and the third international break of the season is upon us, and as we wait to see if Nigeria and Congo DR can keep their World Cup qualification hopes alive or if the mighty Faroe Islands can pull off a qualification miracle, now's a pretty good time to step back and look at what the analytics are telling us about the club season to date."
The 2025-26 European soccer season has reached the analytical range where expected-goals (xG) metrics become semi-predictive after roughly eight to 15 matches. France's Ligue 1 and Spain's LaLiga have each played 12 matchdays, the Premier League and Serie A have played 11, and the Bundesliga has played 10. The third international break arrives in mid-November amid ongoing World Cup qualification drama. Overall xG (not non-penalty xG) is used for cleanliness, while superior finishers can make top teams exceed xG and injuries noticeably affect early-season analytics. Arsenal appears notably strong, while Liverpool illustrates small-sample volatility.
Read at ESPN.com
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