Quantum computing could be a $198 billion industry in the next 15 years, Jefferies analyst says | Fortune
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Quantum computing could be a $198 billion industry in the next 15 years, Jefferies analyst says | Fortune
"Garrigan and his team began coverage of the quantum industry by rating three companies: D-Wave Quantum (buy), IonQ (buy), and Rigetti Computing (hold). All three companies emerged from U.S. academic research labs more than 10 years ago, but financially they still look like well-funded startups. D-Wave and IonQ are both growing but unprofitable. The former reported Q3 revenue was up 100% to $3.7 million but with a net loss of $140 million; the latter disclosed Q3 revenue of $39.9 million, up 222% on a net loss of $1.1 billion."
"In "classical" computing, computer chips and software solve problems using "bits" that represent information as 1 or 0, like a light switch that can only be on or off. Quantum computers, by contrast, use the principles of quantum uncertainty in subatomic physics to represent information as "qubits" that can be 1, 0, or both at the same time. This ability to present information in "superposition" (roughly, in simultaneous parallel), makes quantum computers potentially very powerful."
"'A classical computer is like reading every book in the library one by one to find an answer. A quantum computer is like being able to read all the books at once,' the team at Jefferies wrote in a note to clients seen by Fortune. A fully functioning quantum computer can, in theory, tackle complex problems in 5 minutes that classical computers would need 10 septillion years of processing to solve."
Quantum computing currently generates about $1 billion in revenue and could reach a total addressable market up to $198 billion by 2040. Three quantum hardware companies—D-Wave Quantum, IonQ, and Rigetti Computing—remain unprofitable and resemble well-funded startups despite emerging from U.S. academic labs more than a decade ago. D-Wave reported Q3 revenue up 100% to $3.7 million with a net loss of $140 million. IonQ reported Q3 revenue of $39.9 million, up 222%, with a net loss of $1.1 billion. Rigetti reported Q3 revenue of $1.9 million, down 18%, a $201 million loss, and new contracts worth $11.5 million. Quantum computers use qubits in superposition for parallel processing and promise dramatic theoretical speedups, but significant physics and engineering challenges remain.
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