"Sometimes. But not usually, experts said Monday, after a 4.3 magnitude quake centered in Berkeley woke up thousands of people across the Bay Area at 2:56 a.m. early Monday morning. There is a small chance that this is a foreshock to something larger, said Angie Lux, a seismologist at the Berkeley Seismology Laboratory. But there is a less than 1%. It could happen but it is not really statistically significant."
"That happened in 2019 during the Ridgecrest Earthquake, which occurred in near the desert town of Ridgecrest in Kern County. On July 4 that year, the first main shock, a 6.4 quake, hit at 10:33 am. It was followed by more than 1,400 aftershocks, many of them small. But the next day there was a 5.4 aftershock, and four hours later, the largest quake, a 7.1 shook the rural area."
A 4.3-magnitude earthquake centered in Berkeley occurred at 2:56 a.m., waking thousands across the Bay Area. There is under a 1% chance that the event is a foreshock to a larger earthquake, while the probability of a magnitude-3 in the same area within a week is about 16%, of another magnitude-4 about 2%, and of magnitude-5 or greater under 1%. Larger earthquakes tend to produce larger aftershocks, whereas smaller events affect a smaller portion of a fault and are less likely to trigger larger quakes. Bay Area magnitude-4+ events numbered 279 from 1967–2022, roughly five per year.
Read at www.mercurynews.com
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