The next redistricting battle might be who is counted in state legislative districts

"As the Framers of the Constitution and the Fourteenth Amendment comprehended, representatives serve all residents, not just those eligible or registered to vote. Such a change would likely lead to a transfer of political influence away from urban areas that are younger and more racially diverse, and toward rural areas that are older and whiter."

"Republican officials in some states have called for using a narrower population: only eligible voters. Some advocates of this form of redistricting have interpreted it to mean leaving out non-U.S. citizen adults and all children. Only adult citizens would count, including those who, in some states, are not eligible to vote because of a felony conviction or their mental incapacity."

"Justice Samuel Alito authoring a concurring opinion calling it an important and sensitive question the justices could consider if such a plan were brought to the court. Republican officials in some states have filed lawsuits that could end up forcing the Census Bureau to release the information that linedrawers would need to create such a redistricting plan."

Redistricting disputes may soon center on population counting methods for state legislative districts. Traditionally, mapmakers have used total population figures, but some Republican officials advocate counting only eligible voters—excluding non-citizens and children. This approach would concentrate political influence in rural, older, whiter areas while diminishing power in younger, more diverse urban regions. The Supreme Court ruled in 2016 that states may use total population for redistricting, with Justice Ginsburg noting representatives serve all residents. However, the Court did not definitively address whether eligible-voter-only redistricting is legal. Justice Alito called this an important question for future consideration. Currently, Republican-led states are filing lawsuits seeking Census Bureau release of citizenship data at block levels to enable such redistricting plans.

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