The UK Defense Ministry expects Russia to lose 1,000 or more troops per day in the coming winter, saying Moscow will likely keep trying to overwhelm Ukraine in the next months despite difficult conditions. They noted, "Russia's casualty rate will likely continue to average above 1,000 a day for the rest of 2024 despite the onset of winter." This highlights the continuation of hostilities amid harsh weather.
The ministry has for several months flagged that Russia is suffering a far higher casualty rate compared to previous years as it relies on mass to grind its way to victory in Ukraine. This indicates a shift in tactics, as reliance on numbers rather than strategy has led to increased losses.
In a separate note on its Monday update, the UK defense ministry cited data indicating that Ukrainian forces now estimate that Russian losses in September were even higher, at 1,271 killed or wounded per day. This emphasizes the escalating human cost of the conflict.
Since the start of the conflict, Russia has likely suffered over 648,000 casualties, with a progressive increase in month-to-month losses. The ministry wrote, 'The sharp jump in losses is likely due to Russia and Ukraine opening new fronts.' This shows the dynamic and brutal nature of the ongoing war.
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