What the Gerrymandering Wars Mean for the Midterms-and 2028

"Over the past month, we have had a Supreme Court decision about the Voting Rights Act, and several moves by Republican states to create safe congressional districts. So, as you may recall, in 2025, Donald Trump began a highly unusual, if not unprecedented, mid-cycle campaign where he sought to encourage Republican states to redraw their maps to the advantage of Republicans. A whole series of Republican states followed through on that over the ensuing months, with Texas, North Carolina, and Florida chief among them. And this will likely net the Republicans a meaningful number of seats in the House."

"What I think the Republicans didn't expect was that, earlier this year, the Democrats seemed like they were mostly able to cancel out those likely-to-be-lost congressional seats with their own gerrymanders in Virginia and in California. But, over the last two weeks, that basic picture of Republican gerrymanders mostly cancelled out by Democratic gerrymanders has chang"

"They have once again tilted in the Republicans' favor in recent weeks, after a controversial Supreme Court decision and a setback for Democrats in Virginia, where they were blocked from pushing through their own gerrymander in the hopes of offsetting successful redistricting efforts in Republican-majority states across the country."

Republican states have accelerated redistricting efforts to create safer congressional districts, following a mid-cycle push that encouraged map redraws for Republican advantage. Texas, North Carolina, and Florida are among the states that acted, and the resulting changes are expected to yield additional House seats. Democrats previously appeared able to offset likely Republican losses through gerrymanders in Virginia and California. Recent developments have shifted that balance, including a Supreme Court decision involving the Voting Rights Act and a Virginia setback that blocked Democrats from advancing their own gerrymander. These changes suggest Republicans may gain more durable advantages in future election cycles, affecting outcomes beyond 2028.

Read at The New Yorker