Democrats lead on the generic congressional ballot by 6.6 points in a polling average and by 11 points in a recent survey. Redistricting does not place GOP majorities in safe territory. GOP prospects worsen if Trump’s approval continues to decline, with approval already at 39.8% in an average. Message discipline on the Iran war has been lacking, and late-night missives come across as disruptive rather than reassuring. Domestic messaging is also mixed, with a healthcare drug announcement overshadowed by a White House security request and remarks about construction. Voters remain sensitive to gasoline prices, and fundraising may help while campaigning by Trump could be counterproductive.
"Under the headline, Gerrymandering Isn't Enough for the GOP, Rove noted that redistricting efforts don't put the GOP majority in safe territory, as Democrats lead on the generic congressional ballot by 6.6 points in Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin average of recent polls and by 11 in the latest New York Times/Siena survey. And Rove thinks he knows who's responsible for the widening gap. The GOP's chances will get worse if President Trump's approval numbers keep declining. They're already dangerously low."
"Wednesday, his approval hit 39.8% in the RealClearPolitics average, the lowest of his second term so far, he wrote before observing that the administration's message discipline on the Iran war has been lacking. Making things worse are Mr. Trump's erratic late-night missives. The president comes across more as a heckler at a UFC match than as a reassuring wartime commander in chief, he added."
"Mr. Trump is also mucking up his domestic messaging. He quickly swamped the good with bad, continued Rove. His announcement Monday that he was reducing healthcare costs by adding 600 generic drugs to the government's on-line low-cost drugstore was a winner. But long after the memory of that announcement fades, voters will recall Tuesday's news conference at the White House ballroom construction site."
"The president's promoting his $1 billion request for White House security measures' won't convert voters. Nor will bragging that there will never be another building like this,' especially with Americans upset about $5-a-gallon gasoline, which Mr. Trump dismissed as peanuts.' The Fox News contributor went on to urge Trump to continue fundraising for candidates, but refrain from hitting the campaign trail himself to let Republic"
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