After Minneapolis, Republicans Still Have a Midterms Advantage

"Yes, the president's party generally loses House seats in midterm elections; since 1946, the president's party has lost 18 out of 20 election cycles. This pattern, however, obscures a significant discontinuity. First, between 1954 and 1994, the Democratic Party was the House. During this 40-year period, both Democratic and Republican presidents would lose House seats in the midterm."

"The House has turned over five times since then. And by wide margins. In 1994, the Democrats lost 54 seats. In 2006, Republicans lost 31. In 2010, Democrats lost 64. In 2018, Republicans lost 40. Undoubtedly, public disapproval of the incumbent president can be determinative. But the pattern has also been disrupted three times."

Republicans should recognize their competitive position despite typical midterm disadvantages facing the incumbent party. While the president's party has lost House seats in 18 of 20 midterm cycles since 1946, this pattern masks important discontinuities. From 1954 to 1994, Democrats controlled the House regardless of which party's president was in office. Since 1994, House control has shifted five times with large margins. However, the pattern has been disrupted three times when the incumbent party gained or won seats despite historical trends. Public disapproval of the incumbent president can be determinative, but it is not automatic, suggesting Republicans should focus on specific conditions rather than accepting inevitable defeat.

Read at The American Conservative