"The estimate is based on rate changes since 2000 and should be interpreted as directional rather than structural, the analysts wrote in a report released Friday. Refis, which accounted for roughly 28% of overall mortgage activity in 2025, were already expected to grow in 2026. Fannie Mae forecasts mortgage rates to fall about 30 basis points this year, driving refinancing volume up 64% to approximately $882 billion."
"I expect to see a noticeable increase in refinance applications next week, Brendan McKay, broker and owner of Maryland-based McKay Mortgage, told HousingWire. While the rate drop was modest, the catalyst for the drop will generate headlines and borrowers will see that rates have fallen. This will lead to more incoming refinance inquiries and greater receptiveness to proactive outreach. Robert Pieklo, president and CEO of eLend, which works in the wholesale mortgage space, echoed the optimism."
Estimate based on rate changes since 2000 should be interpreted as directional rather than structural. Refinancings accounted for roughly 28% of mortgage activity in 2025 and were expected to grow in 2026. Fannie Mae forecasts mortgage rates to fall about 30 basis points this year, which would increase refinancing volume about 64% to roughly $882 billion. A faster rate decline would accelerate some refinancing into the near term. Mortgage brokers report that modest rate drops and related headlines will likely spur more refinance inquiries. Borrowers with rates above about 6.75% are actively considering refinancing, while those near 6.5% are trickling in and homeowners with around 3% have little incentive.
Read at www.housingwire.com
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