Mortgage originations hit 1.44M in Q4 behind refinance surge

"February's dip in mortgage rates expanded the refinance-eligible population to 5.4 million borrowers, the largest pool we've seen since early 2022, further improving affordability, which is at its best level in nearly four years."

"About 565,000 first-lien refinances closed in the fourth quarter, up roughly 50% from a year earlier and the highest quarterly volume since the second quarter of 2022. Affordability also improved compared with a year earlier. The monthly payment required to purchase an average-priced home fell 8% to $2,063."

"Borrowers withdrew $52 billion in home equity in the fourth quarter, bringing the total for 2025 to $205 billion, marking the highest annual amount since 2022. Of that, $116 billion came from second liens, the largest annualized second-lien volume since 2007."

"Borrowers facing the highest insurance burdens were significantly more likely to fall behind on mortgage payments. Those in the highest insurance-cost quintile were at least 22% more likely to be delinquent than those in the lowest quintile of credit score tiers analyzed."

Mortgage rate declines in February expanded the refinance-eligible population to 5.4 million borrowers, marking the largest pool since early 2022. Refinance activity surged with 565,000 first-lien refinances closing in the fourth quarter, up 50% year-over-year and the highest quarterly volume since mid-2022. Home affordability improved significantly, with monthly payments for average-priced homes falling 8% to $2,063. Homeowners withdrew $52 billion in home equity during the fourth quarter, totaling $205 billion for 2025, the highest annual amount since 2022. Property insurance costs continued rising at a slower pace, increasing 6.6% to record highs, though the fourth quarter saw the first quarterly decline since tracking began. Borrowers with the highest insurance costs were 22% more likely to fall behind on payments. Servicer retention improved substantially, with one in three refi borrowers staying with their servicer, the strongest rate since early 2014.

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