Purchase application volumes rose 2% week-to-week and 25% year-over-year. In 2025 there have been 16 positive weekly readings, 11 negative, and 6 flat prints. Year-over-year data shows 30 straight positive weeks and 17 consecutive weeks of double-digit growth. The year-over-year strength is largely driven by a rebound in new listings after historic lows in 2023–2024, with 2025 reaching a three-year high in new listings though not returning to pre-COVID norms. The last four weeks show consistent positive week-to-week and year-over-year readings alongside mortgage rates falling below 6.64%. At least 12–14 consecutive positive weekly purchase application readings are needed to move mortgage rates closer to 6%.
The latest data shows: +2% week to week +25% year over year The weekly data in 2025 so far: 16 positive weeks 11 negative weeks 6 flat prints The yearly data: 30 straight weeks of positive year-over-year data 17 consecutive weeks of double-digit growth year over year The year-over-year growth in purchase application data has looked impressive this year; however, this is more of a function of our new listings data growing year over year.
We must be mindful that 2023 and 2024 were the two lowest years for new listings in history, so we are working from an extremely low bar. Additionally, the 2025 data didn't return to the normal levels we would have seen in the pre-COVID era, but we did experience growth this year. If we weren't working from a historic low in purchase apps and the second-lowest new listings ever in 2024, the year-over-year growth this year wouldn't be as striking.
If you look closely at the chart below, you can see the trend over the last four weeks has been positive. Over the past four weeks, we have observed positive data both on a week-to-week basis and year-over-year. While we nearly experienced a similar trend in March, it has now developed into a legitimate pattern, with mortgage rates falling below 6.64%.
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