"Q3 delivered a mixed bag. Revenue of $915 million beat the $849.6 million consensus, but earnings missed at -$0.12 versus the expected -$0.07. The company purchased just 1,169 homes in Q3, the lowest quarterly acquisition count since 2017 excluding COVID. Management's promise for this quarter was clear: increase acquisitions by at least 35% from Q3 levels while improving contribution margins after they bottomed in October."
"Analysts are focused on three critical metrics: unit economics, inventory turns, and the path to profitability under new CEO Kaz Nejatian. The earnings estimate of -$0.11 represents a slight improvement from Q3's -$0.12 loss, but prediction markets tell a different story. Polymarket traders are pricing in a 69.5% probability that Opendoor will miss estimates, suggesting significant skepticism about the company's ability to clear even this low bar."
Opendoor faces steep revenue declines with consensus Q4 revenue around $594 million, roughly a 35% drop from Q3's $915 million. Analysts prioritize unit economics, inventory turns, and the company's path to profitability under CEO Kaz Nejatian. Polymarket traders assign a 69.5% probability that Opendoor will miss the -$0.11 earnings estimate. Q3 results showed $915 million revenue but a -$0.12 loss and historically low acquisitions of 1,169 homes. Management guided Q4 to at least 1,577 home purchases and aims to improve contribution margins while refounding Opendoor as a software and AI company targeting breakeven adjusted net income by 2026.
Read at 24/7 Wall St.
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