"If you walked the aisles at this year's International Builders Show, you could feel it. The vibe wasn't panic. It wasn't euphoria. It was something in between a cautious optimism that maybe, just maybe, the worst is behind us. Traffic anecdotes sounded a little better. Some builders spoke about steadier January sales activity. Conversations drifted toward the idea that the bottom of the new-home cycle may have arrived sometime in early Q4 2025, and that what we're seeing now is the beginning of a slow turn."
"As TBD contributor Scott Cox wrote this week in his analysis of a specific homebuyer recession, the sectors that traditionally generate new-home buyers high-income professional and financial roles are no longer producing the same level of job growth. In fact, some are shrinking. That's a structural demand issue, not a cyclical blip. And it matters because the economics of new-home construction today require buyers earning well into six-figure incomes. When that qualified buyer pool contracts, early-year momentum can fade quickly once the in"
Show attendees reported a tempered mood of cautious optimism, with some steadier January sales and conversations that the new-home cycle bottom may have been reached in early Q4 2025. True market durability will be revealed by peak selling results in July rather than early-year anecdotes. Stabilized mortgage rates and consumer impatience have supported modest momentum, while builders have increased incentives, shifted to smaller product, and tightened operations. Structural risk persists because traditional sources of new-home buyers—high-income professional and financial roles—are producing weaker job growth. New-home economics require buyers with six-figure incomes, so a contracting qualified buyer pool could quickly erode early momentum.
Read at www.housingwire.com
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