Between summer 2021 and summer 2024, the U.S. experienced a notable rise in net international migration, contributing 2.8 million to a total population increase of 3.3 million. However, border crossings have since decreased dramatically. Projections for 2025 predict net international migration at between +115,000 and -525,000. A decline in immigration will likely lead to decreased rental demand, particularly impacting major metro areas like New York City, Miami, and Houston. Economists express concern that this trend may hinder total employment growth in the U.S.
"Net migration may be reduced even further in 2026 before rebounding in 2027 and 2028," according to researchers who state the expected range of migration is between -525,000 and 115,000 for 2025.
"An immediate and direct housing impact of fewer immigrants coming through the southern border is lower aggregate rental demand, specifically at the lower end of the market."
"The rental markets likely to see the biggest impact are in metro areas that have experienced the most international immigration in recent years, such as New York City, Miami, and Houston."
"This pullback in international migration could dampen U.S. total employment growth and reduce overall U.S."
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