"By looking at the 20192025 job cycle alongside the current qualification bar for new homes, we can see exactly why the market feels frozen despite high employment in other sectors. In short: The economy is currently hemorrhaging the only people who can afford the product you sell. To understand the job data, we first have to look at the Gate a buyer must pass. As of early 2026, the median price for a new home is approximately $392,300."
"When we overlay the job growth/loss data with the average earnings of these sectors, the Qualified Buyer Gap becomes a structural crisis for builders. The qualified buyer drain: a 3-act story During this window, your three sectors added roughly 1.8 million jobs. These were almost all Qualified Buyer roles. This created the massive backlog of demand that builders are still trying to work through. At that time, mortgage rates were 3%, meaning the Income Needed was only about $75,000."
"Back then, even healthcare workers could buy. Interest rates jumped to 7%, and the Income Needed to buy a new home skyrocketed from ~$75k to $120k+. Suddenly, the Healthcare sector was locked out. The new home market became 100% dependent on the high earners in Information, Finance, and Professional Services to keep the lights on. Act 3: The Engine Stalls (2025-Post Revision) As you noted, 2025 saw a net loss of 223,000 jobs across those three specific sectors."
From 2019–2025, Information, Finance, and Professional Services added roughly 1.8 million jobs that qualified buyers for new homes, creating a massive backlog of demand. Median new-home price in early 2026 is about $392,300. Mortgage rates rose from roughly 3% to about 7%, pushing income needed to buy a new home from roughly $75,000 to $120,000+. The rise in required income locked out many healthcare workers. In 2025 those high-earning sectors lost a net 223,000 jobs, while healthcare expanded with roles that pay substantially less, producing a structural qualified-buyer gap that stalls builders.
Read at www.housingwire.com
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