As a climate scientist, I know heatwaves in Australia will only get worse. We need to start preparing now | Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick

"I had taken my daughters down to the pool in our estate in western Sydney, hoping for a brief reprieve from the relentless heat. The Gospers Mountain fire was raging in the Blue Mountains, but on that particular day the smoke didn't seem too bad. We were in the water for no more than five minutes when ash started falling from the sky."

"Fast forward six years and south-eastern Australia is in the grips of another heatwave the worst since 2019-2020. Both Melbourne and western Sydney will reach temperatures in the low 40s, towns in regional Victoria and New South Wales even higher. Canberra where I live now is experiencing consecutive days in the high 30s. Heatwave conditions are severe to extreme for large swathes of South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales and the ACT until Saturday."

"The main difference is that we are not in a multi-year drought, meaning that fuel has not dried out to the same extent. We also now have a national fire danger index and, as a population, are generally more aware of how to prepare for impending fire danger. Maybe, hopefully, these factors will be enough to prevent a devastating fire event like those that followed previous severe heatwaves, despite significant fires already burning in Victoria. But we must not be complacent."

Southeastern Australia is experiencing a severe heatwave, with Melbourne and western Sydney expected to reach low 40s and regional towns even higher. Canberra is having consecutive days in the high 30s. Heatwave conditions are severe to extreme across South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales and the ACT until Saturday. From Friday, strong winds from a cold front will create an exceptionally dangerous fire-weather set-up reminiscent of the 2009 Black Saturday fires. Unlike 2009 and 2019-2020, the region is not in a multi-year drought, leaving fuels less desiccated. A national fire danger index and greater public preparedness may reduce impacts, but caution remains crucial due to significant ongoing fires and severe health risks from extreme heat.

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