"Imagine you've set the goal of running a marathon that's 90 days away. You've hired a trainer who says this a less than optimal amount of time, but if you stick religiously to her fitness routine, nutrition plan, and sleep schedule, you'll be ready come race day. Cheat in any of those three areas, she warns, and you won't be able to run 26.2 miles on three month's notice."
"Let's assume you feel pretty good about your odds of following through in each area. You believe there's a 70% chance you'll stick with the fitness routine, a 70% chance you'll stick with the nutrition plan, and a 70% chance you'll stick with the sleep schedule. What are your odds of doing all three and showing up ready to run?"
A 90-day marathon plan requires three prerequisites: following a fitness routine, a nutrition plan, and a sleep schedule. With independent 70% probabilities for each prerequisite, the combined chance of meeting all three equals about 34.3%. Multiplying probabilities shows that multiple necessary steps sharply reduce overall success likelihood. More complex ambitions require more prerequisites and therefore suffer even lower odds, explaining high failure rates for startups and broken resolutions. Success becomes a matter of probability management rather than luck. One concrete approach is to reduce the likelihood of bad outcomes by proactively identifying and preventing failure points.
Read at Fast Company
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