Kosmos 482, a Soviet spacecraft launched in 1972, is set to reenter Earth's atmosphere this coming weekend after decades of orbiting. Experts suggest it will likely splash down in water, though there is a small chance of damaging property or harming individuals. The spacecraft was built to withstand the harsh conditions of Venus and may survive reentry largely undamaged. Initially aimed at Venus, an engine failure left it in low Earth orbit, where it has remained ever since. Its fate includes unpredictable landing areas, potentially affecting regions from Canada to South America.
There's a not-trivial chance that it could hit somewhere where it damages property, and there's a small chance but it's like one in thousands that it could hurt someone.
What I expect is instead of burning up and melting, it will reenter essentially undamaged.
The Soviet craft was designed to stand up to the thick, hot atmosphere of Venus and has a parachute, though it's unclear if it is intact.
Kosmos 482 separated into multiple pieces, some of which likely landed in New Zealand shortly after launch.
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