Signing Lucas Giolito to a two-year, $38.5 million contract likely represents a like-for-like swap from a rate-based perspective for what Sale would have contributed in 2024, though ZiPS does view the righty as an upgrade despite a disastrous 2023 campaign that saw Giolito finish with the fourth-worst FIP (5.27) among qualified pitchers.
Behind him in the rotation, Brayan Bello is the only starter whose 50th-percentile outcome projects him to be better than league average by ERA (4.28 ERA, 104 ERA+).
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