In their Game 1 win, the Rangers defied critics by putting up 4 goals at even strength and none on the powerplay. The Rangers formula for a win is to tread water at 5v5 (~48% xG share), get elite goaltending, and convert on the powerplay. They got two of the three, and they won.
Per Rob Luker's nice work here, we see how the Rangers fare with the formula. Naturally when they get all three, they are undefeated at 14-0. When they own the xG share and get goaltending, like they did in Game 1, they are 9-1. Naturally, more of the Game 1 effectiveness is needed.
As you go down the analysis, you'll see the happens when the goaltending starts to falter (5th row). When Igor Shesterkin has a rough outing, the Ranges are a sub-.500 hockey team. That shouldn't be surprising, as we saw how poor goaltending tanked the Devils and Penguins this year.
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