If Mamdani Raises NYC Taxes, Will The Wealthy Leave The City?

"Ever since Zohran Mamdani made a big splash by winning the Democratic nomination for Mayor of New York City in June of 2025, he has been thrust into the spotlight. Many, including , have opined on his tax policies that question whether he can raise over $10 billion in incremental revenues to pay for his ambitious plans by primarily raising taxes on the wealthy."

"The Rolling Stonesrecently published a story with a headline stating "Tax The Rich. They'll Stay" as a nod to the "scant" evidence that raising taxes will affect whether wealthy taxpayers will leave the city when facing higher taxes. However, a key problem arises. The evidence from their article is mostly descriptive and based on associations. Meanwhile, evidence from academic studies that uses larger datasets using various setting and provides causal evidence suggests that the wealthy may leave, and the evidence is not "scant"."

Zohran Mamdani won the Democratic nomination for New York City mayor and proposed raising over $10 billion through higher taxes on wealthy residents. Observers have questioned whether wealthy taxpayers would actually leave in response to such tax increases. Some analyses rely on descriptive associations and conclude limited migration risk. Academic studies using larger datasets and causal research designs find evidence that higher taxes can prompt wealthy taxpayer migration. City-level taxes may exacerbate migration risks because wealthy individuals can relocate across nearby jurisdictions. Evidence from causal studies suggests migration risks are substantial enough to affect the feasibility of ambitious revenue projections.

Read at Forbes