Prediction markets show Zohran Mamdani as the clear frontrunner in the New York City mayoral race, with Interactive Brokers assigning him an 81% chance and PredictIt and Polymarket each at 84%. Mamdani secured the Democratic nomination after defeating former Governor Andrew Cuomo in the primary; Cuomo holds about a 20% chance in the Interactive Brokers market. The incumbent mayor, running as an independent, sits around 6%, while Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa registers roughly 3%. Mamdani, age 33, has drawn criticism from the business community for a socialist-leaning platform that includes a $30 minimum wage by 2030, raising the corporate tax to 11.5%, and building 200,000 permanently affordable, union-built, rent-stabilized homes.
Mamdani, the self-described socialist who prevailed to secure the Democratic nomination for the Big Apple's mayoral race this fall, has an 81% chance of winning the election this November, according to data from Interactive Brokers reviewed on Wednesday afternoon. Over the last week, Mamdani's odds have remained above 75% with his main challengers struggling to gain traction. Former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, who was defeated by Mamdani in the Democratic primary, has the next best odds with a 20% chance of winning the mayoral race, per the Interactive Brokers market.
Incumbent Mayor , who opted against competing in the Democratic primary and instead chose to run as an independent candidate, was in third place with a 6% chance of winning the race. Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa, who is known as the founder and leader of the Guardian Angels crime prevention group and was unopposed for the GOP nod, has a roughly 3% chance of prevailing in his bid to become mayor of New York City. Mamdani also has a commanding lead on PredictIt with an 84% chance of winning.
He also has an 84% chance of winning on Polymarket. The 33-year-old Mamdani's emergence as the frontrunner in the New York City mayoral race comes despite controversy over his policy platform, which features socialist policies that have drawn criticism from the business community. His campaign platform calls for raising New York City's minimum wage to $30 an hour by 2030, along with raising the corporate tax rate to match New Jersey's 11.5% rate. He has proposed building 200,000 new units of "permanently affordable, union-built, rent-stabilized homes"
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