Survivor pool strategy: Colts, Patriots among top options in Week 8

"The season of chalk hit its apex in Week 7, as 93% of remaining entries survived last week. There have only been five upsets by at least six-point underdogs all season, the second fewest through Week 7 in the Super Bowl era (2005). The worst teams in the NFL have not been winning this season. Seven teams have separated from the pack as the worst teams in the NFL: the Tennessee Titans, New York Jets, New Orleans Saints, Cleveland Browns, Cincinnati Bengals, Las Vegas Raiders and Miami Dolphins. There is a bigger gap between the No. 25 and No. 26 teams than the No. 13 and No. 25 teams, according to ESPN Analytics."

"The Titans rank last, and they are the top team to fade in Week 8. They visit the Indianapolis Colts, who are on pace for the highest offensive success rate by any team this century. The Colts are by far the biggest favorites of the week, and there's little reason to pivot elsewhere. If you have used the Colts, it is a much tougher choice, with the Patriots and Falcons getting a slight edge. Mike Clay's Eliminator Challenge cheat sheet Not only are the Colts the largest favorites this week, both Mike Clay and ESPN Analytics have this as one of the two most lopsided matchups the rest of the season. They have only two remaining games against teams below .500 (both vs. the Houston Texans), so their future value is limited. Our two models give the Colts an 89% chance to win this week, with no other game above 74%."

ESPN Eliminator Challenge requires picking one NFL team each week; a correct pick advances the entry while a loss eliminates it, and no team can be picked twice. Week 7 featured extreme chalk, with 93% of remaining entries surviving and only five upsets by six-point underdogs all season. Seven teams have separated as the worst this year: Tennessee, New York (Jets), New Orleans, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Las Vegas and Miami. The Titans rank last and are the top fade in Week 8 as they visit the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts are heavy favorites and models give them an 89% chance to win this week.

Read at ESPN.com