Season projections focus on five statistical categories: passing yards, receiving yards, rushing yards, interceptions thrown and defensive sacks. ESPN BET offers betting markets for leaders in yardage and touchdown categories, though touchdown markets are noisy. Historical trends make yardage, interceptions and sacks more predictive than touchdowns. Probabilities were assigned to individual players to estimate their chances to lead each category. Last season Joe Burrow led the league with 4,918 passing yards, Jared Goff was second with 4,629, and Burrow's 652 pass attempts reflected a pass-first offense (second in pass rate over expectation per NFL Next Gen Stats) and a defense that ranked 25th in points allowed.
Do you smell that? That glorious scent on the late summer breeze? Smells like NFL football, baby. It's an enormous relief to be done with preview content, done with top 100s and top 10s and most-improved-team picks and biggest questions, and just get back to football. But we aren't done just yet. I have one more piece of season-long preview content for you. And it's about season leaders.
There are plenty of markets for season leaders in all sorts of statistical categories. At ESPN BET, we have markets for leaders in passing yards, rushing yards and receiving yards -- and all three touchdown categories to boot. The touchdown categories get very noisy, but there are some historical trends we can look at in yardage, passing interceptions and individual player sacks that bring clear leading candidates to the foreground.
So I gave my predictions for who will lead those five statistical categories this season -- passing yards, receiving yards, rushing yards, interceptions thrown and defensive sacks -- and gave my own percentage chance for every player to potentially pace the NFL in each category. If you've been wondering how likely it is that Chuba Hubbard tops the league in rushing yardage, this is the article for you. Let's start with the two QB-centric stats.
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