"Seth WalderSep 1, 2025, 06:30 AM ET CloseSeth Walder is an analytics writer at ESPN, specializing in quantitative analysis. He is also a regular on "ESPN Bet Live" and helps cover sports betting. Seth has been at ESPN since 2017. He previously worked at the New York Daily News covering the Jets and Giants. You can follow Seth on X via @SethWalder."
"That's what we're doing here. We're detailing the story of a single simulation from ESPN's Football Power Index, which normally uses 10,000 simulations to build its projections. To be clear, this is not my prediction or ESPN Analytics' prediction of how this season will unfold. (Vikings fans still in my mentions about Minnesota's 4-13 record in last year's simulation -- please read that sentence.) This is simply simulation No. 4,091 -- what definitely, absolutely, certainly could happen in 2025. Let's play it out."
ESPN's Football Power Index normally uses 10,000 simulations to project an NFL season, but a single simulation can produce one specific narrative. Simulation No. 4,091 shows both Super Bowl LIX participants, the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles, missing the playoffs. The Eagles began 5-4 after Week 10 but slumped to 6-8 and were eliminated before the final week. That outcome illustrates the variability inherent in season-long simulations and emphasizes that single-run narratives represent one possible outcome rather than a definitive forecast.
Read at ESPN.com
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