"At the start of the regular season, penciling in the New England Patriots as a threat to win the AFC East seemed to be an afterthought for many reasons. The biggest ones? The Buffalo Bills have owned the division since 2020 and are in Super Bowl or bust mode this season. The Patriots had a second-year quarterback, a new-to-them head coach, and a roster chalked full of preseason questions."
"Well, that's why they play the games. Entering Week 9, the 6-2 Patriots had a half-game division lead on the 5-2 Bills, whose odds to win the AFC East are at 58 percent to New England's 42 percent. At the start of October, the Patriots' chances of unseating the Bills stood at 6%. NEW: The Patriots now have a 42% chance to win the AFC East after sitting at just 6% earlier this month.Can Buffalo hold them off? pic.twitter.com/DSoIYg7LzE- Kalshi Sports (@KalshiSports) October 29, 2025"
Preseason expectations for the New England Patriots were low due to a second-year quarterback, a new head coach, and roster questions, while the Buffalo Bills entered the season as favorites after dominating the AFC East since 2020. Through Week 9 the 6-2 Patriots hold a half-game lead over the 5-2 Bills, with win probabilities at 42% and 58% respectively. Buffalo faces a tougher remaining slate including Kansas City, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, and Pittsburgh, while New England's hardest games are at Baltimore, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, and hosting Buffalo. The season's second-half schedule and team health will likely decide the division race.
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