"ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder broke down all 32 teams into nine tiers of playoff hopes, ranging from clear Super Bowl contenders to those already looking to 2026. There are various shades of gray in between because, for as much as we might feel we know about this NFL season, things could look quite different once Week 18 rolls around. The tiers are based on information from ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), betting lines, performance metrics, health status and some instinct."
"Walder ranked the teams in each tier, though the real delineations are from tier to tier. ESPN's NFL Nation reporters also added a tangible second-half goal for the teams they cover, whether it's securing a first-round playoff bye or evaluating the future of the team's QB position. All statistical rankings are through the Sunday late afternoon window, and playoff chances are from the FPI."
Thirty-two NFL teams are divided into nine tiers ranging from clear Super Bowl contenders to teams planning for 2026. Tier placement is determined using Football Power Index (FPI) probabilities, betting lines, performance metrics, health status and informed judgment. Teams receive rankings within tiers, with more meaningful distinctions between tiers than inside them. Local reporters assigned tangible second-half goals for each team, such as securing a first-round bye or evaluating quarterback futures. Statistical rankings reflect data through the Sunday late-afternoon window and playoff chances are taken from FPI. The Kansas City Chiefs' immediate objective is improving the pass rush around Chris Jones.
Read at ESPN.com
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