"History tells us that starting 0-2 is a damper on your chances of making it to the playoffs, but beginning the season 0-3 is closer to a death knell. Since 2002 -- if we treat the seventh-best team in each conference as a playoff qualifier before the NFL moved to the 14-team postseason format in 2020 -- 13.3% of teams that started 0-2 overcame their slow starts and made the postseason."
"Dropping to 0-3? Good luck. Since 2002, just three of the 96 teams that opened the season with three straight losses have (or would have) advanced. Two of them are Mike Tomlin-coached Steelers teams that would have snuck into the playoffs as No. 7 seeds in 2013 and 2019. The other is the 2018 Texans, who rolled off a nine-game winning streak after their ugly stretch in September."
"That's a 3.1% success rate. And though the addition of a 17th game in 2021 gives these teams extra runway to overcome their starts, the reality is that 0-3 usually tells us what we need to know. If you can't win one of those first three games, you probably don't have the talent to win nine or 10 of the ensuing 14, either."
Starting a season 0-2 reduces the likelihood of reaching the playoffs, while starting 0-3 is almost decisive against postseason qualification. Since 2002, roughly 13.3% of teams that began 0-2 made the playoffs, but only three of 96 teams that started 0-3 advanced, a 3.1% rate. Recent recoveries include the Broncos, Rams and Ravens making the postseason after 0-2 starts; the Steelers (2013, 2019) and the 2018 Texans overcame 0-3 starts. The 17th regular-season game added in 2021 provides more opportunity, but a 0-3 start usually signals insufficient talent to win the necessary remaining games. Ten teams currently sit at 0-2 and must improve quickly to preserve playoff hopes.
Read at ESPN.com
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